Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 3.766848 4.132309 4.561855 5.117740 5.841515 6.792065 8.220701
2024-12-29 3.368873 3.832957 4.428264 5.293653 6.623437 8.859875 14.069357
2025-01-05 3.019060 3.486321 4.108258 5.061887 6.658032 9.788582 20.707660
2025-01-12 2.762627 3.218238 3.838262 4.821210 6.563115 10.400677 31.574709
2025-01-19 2.596976 3.050236 3.680216 4.712215 6.652491 11.545182 94.260182
2025-01-26 2.532456 3.011266 3.698470 4.884151 7.349608 15.555332 NaN
2025-02-02 2.503358 3.016714 3.780230 5.180011 8.497999 27.116285 NaN
2025-02-09 2.425152 2.943006 3.727982 5.216614 9.040767 45.817689 NaN
2025-02-16 2.361768 2.885499 3.694238 5.281075 9.730299 226.836927 NaN
2025-02-23 2.257149 2.759332 3.536080 5.064872 9.387116 379.915351 NaN
2025-03-02 2.203240 2.706622 3.495862 5.089705 9.930653 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.147251 2.647270 3.439106 5.069395 10.312435 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.069519 2.553701 3.322373 4.912709 10.104199 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.045341 2.541611 3.345255 5.075148 11.504178 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.970406 2.446432 3.215446 4.862753 10.882720 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.898539 2.353723 3.085989 4.641351 10.164921 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.848196 2.293093 3.010390 4.540750 10.057310 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.837303 2.293692 3.042614 4.699349 11.501570 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.839779 2.315319 3.114051 4.971065 14.378316 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.813025 2.288542 3.094322 5.004576 15.651897 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.790598 2.267785 3.084380 5.063535 17.507422 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.741721 2.202186 2.986274 4.865501 15.962134 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.718924 2.178678 2.967226 4.888289 17.338742 NaN NaN